Is It Time-Up for Kalonzo Musyoka?

Many are of the opinion that the writing is on the wall for Vice President, one Kalonzo Musyoka, unless he has the gifts of the proverbial cat with nine lives.

Of late, he has found himself in unfamiliar territory. Gone are the days when he was the only cock that crowed in Ukambani. To say the truth, since the just concluded referendum on the new constitution, his share price, as it were, has plummeted to very low levels. But he only has himself to blame for the new turn of events.

The referendum can be termed as a litmus test on his leadership credentials and the turning point of his political career. That he tried to play the 2007 miracles politics of kupita kati kati was not lost on most observers. But what came out clearly is his indecisiveness. Come 2012, the punishment he will likely experience will be as a result of his kati kati stance on the new constitution.

The point is that the VP should have come out early enough with a firm stand to either support or reject the new constitution. His (deliberately) delayed decision to back the YES side came too late as the NO side had already made in-roads supported by the predominant catholic church. To say the least his apparent lack of stand left the Ukambani region very confused, hence the 50:50 referendum results in the region.

The referendum results will hurt both him and the Ukambani region at large. Obviously, the clout that Ukambani held in Kenyan politics has somewhat been diluted. In the next few elections, Kenyan politics will still remain tribal. Hence it is the members of your tribe that you can bring on the power negotiations table that will matter. As for 2012, Kalonzo will have nothing to offer to either Raila, Uhuru or Ruto. It is clear that none of them will be willing to offer Kalonzo a running-mate position if they decide to run for presidency.

Obviously, Kalonzo, being the proud man he is, does not see himself other than as a presidential candidate in the 2012 equation. The problem will be whether he will be in a position to convince any of the other tribal kings to be his running mate. It is not lost on many how he eventually treated his running mate, Julia Ojiambo, after the 2007 elections. But who will be willing to be his running mate this time around?

The other tricky part is which other seat, apart from the presidency, that he is likely to run for. Again, here the options are limited to non-existent. Will he run as an MP? He was recently quoted as having said in Kyuso that the new constitution does not bar him from running for both President and MP. I am not sure about the interpretation of the necessary clause in the new constitution, but what is important is the interpretation of what he is saying. Again, this is kati kati miracles politics and he reasons that if he is not elected president, he will remain an MP.

However, it is worth noting that an MP in the new constitution will not be the same as an MP in the old constitution. To begin with, an MP will not be eligible for appointment in the cabinet. The role of an MP will be merely legislation. No more plum ministerial appointments. The question is, will Kalonzo Musyoka, having risen to the position of Vice President of the republic of Kenya, be comfortable with the position of a mere MP? The same reasoning applies if he chose to run as Senator or Governor of Kitui County. The feeling is that he will definitely run for president. Therefore these two latter positions will not be 'available' to him.

The other issue is the power dynamics presented by the new constitution. The power levers at the grassroots level will be held by the County Governor. The Governor will be the one charged with the responsibility of implementing devolved government projects. This will ultimately include the CDF and LATF funds. MPs will no longer be in a position to dictate how these funds are utilised in their constituencies as their role will be just making legislation in Nairobi. Compared to the Governor, the MP's power to influence matters at the grassroots will be greatly diminished. If Kalonzo decides to be a mere MP, will be agree to play second fiddle to the county governor?

It is also worth noting that he is not guaranteed the MP position as many may think. His poor leadership is reflected in the poor state of Mwingi North constituency that has remained underdeveloped despite having represented it for close to 30 years. There is general apathy in the constituency and if he chooses to run as an MP, he is likely to face stiff competition from more competent individuals.

What we are trying to say is that the kind of politics that Kalonzo has played in the past has been clearly overtaken by events. It is clear that other than going for the presidency, he is unlikely to fit in any other position. Whether he actually gets the top seat is altogether another matter. We wish him all the best. But his room for maneuver is very limited.