Is Waki Report The Reason For Split In ODM?

The real reasons why ODM is headed for a split can be revealed today. And the Waki report, it has emerged, is just being used as a smokescreen by the Rift Valley MPs, led by Agriculture Minister and MP for Eldoret North, William Ruto. The picture that is emerging is that the planned disengagement by the Ruto-led group from mainstream ODM has been in the works since the formation of the grand coalition government. The structure of the coalition government has been a source of friction among ODM MPs. The MPs are claiming that Raila Odinga, the ODM party leader, has reneged on the promises he made to the Rift Valley region which is a vote-rich region and overwhelmingly supported Raila in December 2007 elections.

The main cause of this friction has been the feeling that ODM was slighted in the filling of government positions after the signing of the coalition agreement by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Actually the MPs have identified two levels in which they felt cheated. At one level is the feeling that ODM, through the Prime Minister position, did not get real executive powers to be in a position to influence the running of government. On the other hand, the Rift Valley MPs complain that they were short-changed by Raila in the distribution of slots in the ODM end of the coalition government, especially in relation to cabinet appointments. MPs from the south rift have been vocal on this issue as they feel they got a raw deal.

The other cause of discomfort has been the planned eviction of residents of Mau Forest which is being spearheaded by the Prime Minister. Mau Forest is the biggest water catchment area in Kenya whose demarcation for settlements has resulted in devastating climatic changes around the forest and the rivers and lakes that depend on it. Residents of downstream areas have reported increased incidences of flooding. The move to evict residents has roundly been opposed by the Rift Valley MPs, let by the Ruto. One of the reasons for resistance is that most of the MPs are beneficiaries of a disputed allotment of large tracts of land in the forest. Most of the allocations took place during former President Moi's tenure and most allottees were key supporters and civil servants in his government. The MPs insist that alternative land for resettlement with the same quality will have to identified before the residents can move out of the forest. They see the insistence by Raila that they should vacate the area as a betrayal of the same Kalenjin community that gave him overwhelming support.

However, the main opposition relates to deflated egos for some of the legislators who had high expectations that they would bag plum cabinet appointments once the coalition agreement was signed in February 2008. Indeed, it took great sacrifice by Kibaki and Raila to come up with the cabinet list. Each had to leave out key lieutenants from the cabinet, although in the end they ended up with bloated cabinet of 40 ministers and twice as much assistant ministers. Now the ODM MPs who missed out on cabinet posts have been in the forefront calling for the enactment of a law to recognise official opposition in parliament. The move has been opposed by Raila, arguing that recognising an opposition will weaken the coalition government. On the other hand, William Ruto has been in support of the move to have an opposition in Parliament.

Then comes the Waki report on post-election violence. The report is proving to be the final straw in the relationship between Raila and Ruto. Despite efforts to project a united front, the differences that have been building since March 2008 have now come into the open. Raila has called for the full implementation of the report. Ruto has read a sinister motive in Raila's stand and trashed the report as made up of 'rumours, hearsay and innuendo'. Raila's supporters, mainly from Luo Nyanza have supported his stand, while Rift Valley MPs have supported Ruto's call to reject the report. Now, Ruto is reported to have threatened to ditch ODM. Raila insists that leaders must not hide behind ethnic cocoons when matters of national interest are being discussed, in an apparent move to call Ruto's bluff.

The differences between the two leaders seem to be irreconcilable and the question is not if, but when the two together with their respective supporters are going to part ways. ODM as we know it will emulate the route taken by FORD in the 90s and the original ODM Kenya. That the schism between the two leaders is likely also to lead to the collapse of the coalition government is not far fetched.