WikiLeaks Kenya: Kenyan Connection To BlackWater

FROM: WIKILEAKS

VZCZCXRO0641
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #0113/01 0431600
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 121601Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0099
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMCSUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000113

SIPDIS SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SBU DELIBERATIVE PROCESS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E
CJTF-HOA AND AFRICOM FOR POLAD
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA-WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-02-12
TAGS: PREL PHSA MOPS BEXP DJ SO XA
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI APPROVES BLACKWATER FOR COMMERCIAL COUNTER-PIRACY
OPERATIONS

REF: a) LONDON 62 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY: Eric Wong, DCM, U.S. Department of State, U.S. Embassy, Djibouti; REASON: 1.4(D)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  U.S. security firm, Blackwater Worldwide (BW), has
received permission from the Government of Djibouti to operate an
armed ship from the port of Djibouti, to protect commercial
shipping from pirates off the coast of Somalia.  Blackwater's
U.S.-flagged ship is expected to arrive in early March, and will
have a crew of 33 AmCits, including three 6-man armed teams who
will operate in continuous shifts.  The Djiboutian Navy will secure
Blackwater's weapons (i.e., .50-caliber machine guns) while ashore
in Djibouti.  Blackwater does not intend to take any pirates into
custody, but will use lethal force against pirates if necessary; it
is developing an SOP that is currently under legal review and will
be shared with the USG.  Blackwater's counter-piracy operation does
not have any clients yet, but Blackwater expects business to
develop following a public launch in Djibouti in March with GODJ
officials.  END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) On Feb. 8, ex-FSO Robert Emmett Downey, Blackwater
Worldwide's Development Manager for Africa, provided the following
update to Amb. Swan, DCM, and Bob Patterson (TDY from Embassy
Nairobi):

a) Hassan Said Khaireh--triple-hatted as Djibouti's national
security advisor, head of the security/intelligence service, and
director of President Guelleh's Military Office--has given BW
permission to operate its armed ship in Djibouti.  BW met with
Hassan Said on Feb. 7, following an earlier meeting in WashDC
between BW's CEO Erik Prince and Cofer Black with Djiboutian Amb.
to the U.S. Robleh Olhaye.  This is the only such arrangement so
far that BW has made with a host government in the region, but BW
will likely engage Oman and Kenya in the future (e.g., in the event
of a mechanical malfunction, the only facilities capable of
repairing BW's ship are located in Mombasa.)  Within the USG, BW
has briefed AFRICOM, CENTCOM, and Embassy Nairobi officials.

b) BW's ship is the 'McArthur," a U.S.-flagged 183-foot ex-NOAA
vessel.  While it has landing space for two helicopters, it will
have an unarmed UAV, but no helicopters (which BW considers too
expensive).  The ship will be armed with .50-caliber machine guns,
and is able to protect a 3-ship convoy.  The Djiboutian Navy will
secure BW's weapons, once ashore, and will inspect BW's weapons
lockers.  According to Downey, BW's business concept--having its
armed ship escort other ships requiring protection--is consistent
with recent IMO/industry recommendations discouraging the carriage
of firearms, or the presence of embarked armed security teams,
aboard commercial ships themselves (e.g., see reftel, on the 85th
session of the IMO Maritime Safety Committee).  The 'McArthur' will
dock in Djibouti for 36-72 hours every 30 days, to replenish its
stores.  According to Downey, BW is the only such firm with its own
ship.

c) All personnel on BW's ship will be U.S. citizens:  comprising 15
crew and 18 armed security personnel (three 6-man teams who will
operate in continuous 8-hour shifts).  These 33 "operators" will
rotate every 60 days.  For medical contingencies, BW has
arranged--through its local agent in Djibouti, Inchcape
(London-based international shipper with numerous business
activities in Djibouti)--access to Bouffard, the French military
hospital in Djibouti.  The 'McArthur" will arrive in Djibouti in
early March, after transitting Gilbraltar and Acaba, Jordan.  BW
CEO Erik Prince plans to travel to DJ for its public launch.

d) Downey underscored BW's emphasis on compliance with U.S. laws,
including defense trade controls:  BW has a VP for export
compliance, and depends on the USG (DOD) for contracts.  BW's ship,
the 'McArthur", will have video cameras to record BW counter-piracy
activities.

e) BW has no intention of taking any pirates into custody.  While
the French have previously put pirates ashore in Puntland, Downey
said BW had no plans to do so, either in Somalia or Kenya (noting
that Kenya's bilateral PUC agreements with the USG and HMG were
government-to-government).  BW will share its SOP with Embassies
Djibouti and Nairobi once approved; SOP is currently under legal
review, as there is "no precedent for a paramilitary operation in a
purely commercial environment."  While asserting that international
maritime law allows the use of lethal force against pirates, BW

DJIBOUTI 00000113  002 OF 002

also recognizes the need to respect international humanitarian
obligations.  Of concern, for example, is whether BW would be
responsible for assisting injured pirates, if doing so endangered
BW's ability to protect its client(s).

f) BW's local agent in Djibouti is Inchcape.  Bruno Pardigon,
general manager of the newly formed "Djibouti Maritime Security
Services" (DMSS), will provide BW with a license, following
completion of an MOU with DMSS.  Downey was unsure whether DMSS was
a parastatal or a quasi-government agency of the GODJ.  [COMMENT:
Pardigon is favorably known to the Embassy as a French-Djiboutian
businessman and marine conservationist who runs a diving operation
in Djibouti.]  While Downey will remain in Djibouti until March
2009, BW has no plans now to establish an office in Djibouti.

g) While protection is estimated to cost less than $200,000 per
trip, BW's Djibouti operation has no contracts yet for clients.
Downey commented that the shipping industry may assess that piracy
is declining:  only 3 ships were pirated in January 2009; there are
at least 4 foreign naval vessels currently docked in Djibouti
conducting counter-piracy operations; and the EU's Operation
Atalanta is providing military escort of ships.

¶3. (U) COMMENT.  Djibouti's decision to permit Blackwater to begin
counter-piracy operations follows ongoing GODJ efforts aimed at
addressing the piracy threat.  Djibouti recently hosted an IMO
conference on Somali piracy that, inter alia, recommended Djibouti
serve as a center for maritime training.  Numerous foreign military
counter-piracy operations are based in Djibouti--involving units
from Spain, France, the UK, the Netherlands, and other EU members.
Japan (septel) and Korea are also considering military deployments
to Djibouti to support counter-piracy efforts.  Djibouti is a
founding member of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of
Somalia (CGPCS) and has offered to host the group's planned
Counter-Piracy Coordination Cell.

¶4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED.  Blackwater's presence in Djibouti would
make it one of the largest U.S. businesses operating in the
country.  As the host of the only U.S. military base in Africa, as
well as a country with extensive commercial port facilities,
Djibouti has a commercial interest in supporting foreign investors,
including U.S. contractors.  Blackwater executives seek to involve
both Djiboutian and USG principals in a high-profile March 2009
launch; Post would appreciate Department's guidance on the
appropriate level of engagement with Blackwater, while also
fulfilling the USG's commercial advocacy responsibilities to
support U.S. firms.  END COMMENT.
SWAN

It Is Our Time To Eat!

 The appointment today at the KEBS is a pointer that the animal called impunity has not been slayed as is widely believed. Than Henry Kosgey, the Minister for Industrialisation, can go against a the board of KEBS to appoint someone who never qualified during interviews is a complete mockery of established institutions.

But Henry is no stranger to controversy. The mention of his name evokes bitter memories.

For example, he was the man in charge of the All Africa Games I think in 1997 when all the gate takings for the event mysteriously disappeared.

He was later rewarded with a posting to Kenya National Assurance (KNA). This is the insurance company that was looted and collapsed leaving policy holders for life and pensions holding just pieces of paper. The company is under liquidation.

Another company credited with his ingenuity is Kenya Re. It almost collapsed under his watch, were it not for the huge resources that the company had accumulated.

What is he up to now?

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Kalonzo Hopeful for Successful ICC Indictments

                                             Luis Moreno-Ocampo - Kalonzo's only hope

One advantage of having your ear on the ground is that you get to encounter very explosive information during normal conversations with friends and relatives. Like this piece of information that i came across over the past weekend when i was in Kalonzo land.

Apparently, all the talk about Kalonzo being against the post-election violence (PEV) investigations being carried out by the ICC is all hot air. It is reported that recently Kalonzo alleged that the ICC investigations headed by chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo was biased against the PNU. More specifically, since he spoke this when re-launching his party, ODM-K in Nyeri, it has been taken to mean that ICC is targeting the Kikuyu, thus appearing to be in solidarity with Central Kenya MPs who have voiced similar concerns.

The truth of the matter is that being a seasoned politician he had to seize the opportunity, and be seen to be reading from the same script as the central MPs.

But the truth is further from the rhetoric.

What transpired from the conversations i had with people who are privy to the going-ons in his camp was a very different picture. I gathered that the Kalonzo's camp is very anxious and closely monitoring the investigations. They are of the opinion that the investigations should be finalised like yesterday so that the culprits can be taken to the Hague.

The expected culprits are no ordinary people, especially with an eye to 2012 presidential elections. It is widely believed that some of the targets of the investigations could include Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, both of whom are likely to complicate Kalonzo's bid for the presidency in 2012. It is widely believed that even if he were to negotiate an arrangement with either of the two, he is unlikely to accept a running mate position. Anybody willing to have an arrangement with him must accept the running mate position since he feels it is his time to be president. However, it is not a given that either of the two will be willing to play second fiddle to him. Hence the complication.

His only hope is therefore that if the two can be removed from the equation, thanks to the ICC, it would be an easy sail to State House, obviously at the expense of the Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. He feels that in a two-horse contest, he can beat Raila to the finish line hands down.

To any politician, and not just the man from Tseikuru, such a prospect as is being presented by ICC can be quite salivating. For him, the plan is that if Uhuru and Ruto are taken to the Hague, the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin would be very mad with Raila for pushing for the ICC process. The Kalenjin would especially be very mad as they played a key role in ensuring Raila got the PM position. If Uhuru is taken out, it will be enough prove that the Kikuyu have been targeted by ICC for political reasons, to eliminate competition in the run up for the top seat.

If this play goes according to script, Kalonzo will then present himself to both communities as the only one left who can take care of their interests. His message would be he would be capable of getting their leaders back to the country and away from the ICC claws. According to Kalonzo's calculations, if the 2012 elections happen in the process, the communities will have no alternative than to support him. He will be counting on the protest vote from the fallout between these two communities and Raila. Now, with Eastern, Central and Rift Valley in his pocket, the guy will literary whistle all the way to the house on the hill.

It is worth noting the controversy created by utterances attributed to Kalonzo's side-kick and ODM-K Secretary General, Multula Kilonzo, to the effect that ICC might no longer be welcome in Kenya to handle PEV cases and that the cases should be left to local courts now that we have a new constitution. With Kilonzo being the Justice Minister, his statements carry a lot of weight. The strategy is to rattle the hornet's nest, with the expectation that ICC would take this as a challenge to their authority and therefore intensify the campaign to have those implicated in PEV answer for their alleged crimes as soon as possible.

The plan seems to be working so far, as the issue has come back to the public limelight and hit the headlines once again and everybody seems to be talking about nothing else.

And Kalonzo and team wait in the sidelines to pounce on the prize at the earliest opportunity!

Revealed: How Kalonzo Confused Ukambani on Referendum

Kalonzo and Ruto.....what are they upto?

The other day, just after the referendum, I ventured into a little known district that has been curved out of Makueni whose name is Nzaui. I must confess that with so many districts having been created of late, this was the first time came across of this district. But, compared to the larger Makueni county, what I noticed in Nzaui was the extreme weather conditions - dry, hot, sandy conditions. I was a bit surprised because i have always imagined this region to be better climate-wise than Mwingi North, where i hail from.

While in Nzaui, I was able to interact with some wazees. Obviously, as we took our kaluvu (Kamba traditional beer made from honey) our conversation inevitably veered into politics . They were glad to learn that i come from Kalonzo's constituency . But what surprised me also was the near fanatical following that Kalonzo Musyoka enjoys in this region. To quote one mzee, Kalonzo is just a breath away from the presidency and what we the Kambas should do is just a small 'push' and we have our man at the top. My attempts to inform them that Kalonzo has failed to deliver in his constituency and therefore cannot deliver for the country fell on deaf ears. 

Back to my post. Several sources close to Kalonzo have provided information that explains why Ukambani was undecided on whether to vote for or against the new constitution. One source has it that strategising on how to vote for the new constitution started way before the Naivasha Parliamentary Select Committee meetings on the constitution retreat. There were plans to 'outsmart' the Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, by key politicians with their eyes trained on the 2012 elections. The key players here were the Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and then Agriculture Minister William Ruto.


The plan was to lobby fellow  MPs to adopt a purely presidential system of governance with the head of state and government being the President. It was believed that the ODM wing of the PSC would try hard to lobby for a pure parliamentary system with the head of government being a prime minister and the president being a ceremonial head of state. Eventually, the pure presidential system carried the day, with support from Ruto (ODM), Kalonzo and Uhuru.


Just after the Naivasha talks were concluded, the trio could be seen in public in a celebratory mood. There reasoning was simple. That Raila would never accept a pure presidential system. They reasoned that the PM would obviously go against the draft and would lobby against its passing in Parliament. They based their reasoning on the basis that previous projections have shown Raila as unable to ganner the necessary majority as a presidential candidate. He would therefore prefer the route where he acquires power as PM without going through a popular vote.


It is worth noting that even though politicians would deny this, they knew the results of the referendum would give a head start to whoever lead the winning team. Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto had a feeling that they had finally fixed Raila as the country was for a new constitution and a majority of MPs supported the Naivasha draft. They would simply lead the Yes team and win easily while Raila was expected to lead the No team, to a humiliating defeat. Raila would be finished as far as 2012 was concerned. The Kamba-Kikuyu-Kalenjin (KKK) Alliance would clearly receive a much needed shot in the arm to make it real.


Then came the unexpected turn of events. When Raila came out to fully support the draft and vowed to lead the campaign in its favour, the KKK alliance was thrown into a spin. It was apparent that Raila would eventually get all the credits if the draft was passed, and the trio would be left to play Raila's flower girls. Something had to be done.


During the panic, it is believed that they made some decisions that they will live to regret. The just concluded by-elections in Makadara, Starehe and Juja are an indicator of what lies ahead for them. But at least Ruto came out clearly to oppose the draft and was the leader of the No campaign. It was tricky for Kalonzo and Uhuru. Being in PNU, and therefore beholden to president Kibaki, they could not be seen as opposing the draft. On the other hand, they have strong support among the christian fraternity and therefore could not be seen to be supporting the draft. This explains their lukewarm support of the draft.

But it is the instructions that Kalonzo passed on to the grassroots in Ukambani that proved more confusing. In public, Kalonzo appeared to support the draft. In the grassroots, he had assembled key political leaders, mainly civic leaders (councilors) and clearly instructed them to campaign against the draft. My own councilor was at the forefront campaigning against the draft to the last minute. In Kalonzo's weird calculation, since the church opposed the draft, and Kenya being a predominantly christian country, he calculated that eventually the church would prevail and he would 'defect' at the last minute to lead the No team to a win. It is worth noting that his ODM-Kenya deputy, Information and Communication minister Samuel Poghisio, was with Ruto in the No campaign. Also, the No camp campaigned in Ukambani more than they did in any other region. Again, Kalonzo never came out to deny allegations by Ruto that he was 'with us' and it was just a matter of time for him to defect.


By the time the president came out to lead the Yes campaign, it was too late for Ukambani as Kalonzo had 'allowed' the No team to make inroads let by Ruto, Kiema Kilonzo and the predominant catholic church. Opinion polls at the time were also projecting a huge win for the Yes campaign. Kalonzo, and to some extent Uhuru, had no option than to 'follow' Kibaki and Raila in drumming up support for the draft constitution. The Yes-No result in Ukambani was therefore a reflection of how Kalonzo handled the region's, and a clear reflection about his style of leadership. Even if he denies it, he was responsible for the poor result that Yes got in Ukambani.

You can look at Kalonzo's thought process here to understand the man.


P.S. Just a few days to the referendum, I organized a meeting in my village to educate about the new constitution. Before the meeting, it was apparent that most of the participants, being normal religious villagers, had already decided to vote against the document because they had been told in church that it was 'ungodly'. I had to change my strategy to focus on the benefits provided for in the new constitution, especially the in the bill of rights and governance clauses. It paid off. My audience was around 120 people. After the polling, when the votes were counted, those who voted for were 117, while those who voted against were 109. I only wish I could reach all 250 registered voters in time!

Synovate Puts a Smile on Kalonzo's Face

By putting it that the last few days have been a nightmare for Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka is an understatement. After smarting from being splashed with rotten eggs on his pretty face after the by-elections debacle where his ideas were rejected by voters in Makadara, Starehe and Juja, it was back to the drawing board for him. He has now decided to go against the grain and market his party countrywide. To achieve this, he thinks delinking his party from PNU and opening ODM-Kenya offices in all 47 counties will do the magic or is it miracle.

With only under 24 months remaining to the elections scheduled for August 2012, how to make the party, for which he is party leader and his preferred vehicle to Statehouse, popular must make him have cold sweats at night.

However, he has Synovate, a Kenyan marketing research company, to thank for the wide smile he will be having on his shiny face tonight. A new opinion poll by Synovate has shown that team Kalonzo/Uhuru Kenyatta is favourite to win the elections, with Kalonzo as president and Uhuru as running mate.

You can read the full story here.

But the smile might be very short lived when he realizes the odds that he needs to overcome. One, the same poll puts Kalonzo's major opponent for the coveted seat, Prime Minister Raila Ondinga on the driving seat as the most favorite presidential candidate at 47% preference level. Kalonzo comes a distant third at 8% (remember Mr. 8%) even being beaten, ironically, by Mwai Kibaki, the current president, at 12%. The irony here is that Kibaki will even not be eligible to run in the 2012 elections.

Secondly, ODM-Kenya, the party that Kalonzo heads and will use as his vehicle to get to Statehouse, is virtually in ICU. Attempts to resuscitate the party by attempting to break from PNU, according to me, are headed no where. There are several reasons for this. After the 2007 elections debacle, the party was adopted by PNU, with Kalonzo being given the Vice President position. The party basically adopted the policies of PNU and has not made any effort to reflect it's distinctive identity from PNU. Remember that the party did not field any candidates in the various by-elections - Embakasi, South Mugirango, Matuga, Starehe, Makadara, and Juja- opting to 'support' the PNU or PNU friendly candidate, although in some show of defiance, the party has decided to field a candidate for Wajir South by-election scheduled for 13th October 2010.

However, if the just concluded by-elections are anything to go by, the Kalonzo/Uhuru bus has no traction as the tyres are deflated. Both of them, working together, with access to government machinery including cars, helicopters and sympathetic provincial administration, failed to deliver any of their candidates. George Thuo in Juja was a distant third. Ditto Dick Wathika in Makadara. The only hope was Starehe's Maina Kamanda, but the team was over-confident and failed to campaign effectively, losing to Bishop Margaret Wanjiru by just around 4,000 votes. Given this performance, can this team be expected to deliver in 2012?

The other issue is numbers. Kalonzo Musyoka will be hard to sell in the Eastern region, including his Ukambani backyard. The reasons are given in this earlier post. On the other hand, Uhuru Kenyatta is facing stiff competition in what used to be Central Province. The main competitors are Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua, both riding on the successes they scored in the just concluded by-elections. Peter Kenneth's candidate in Juja, Alice Ng'ang'a, managed an impressive second position, beating PNU's George Thuo who came in a distant third. On the other hand, Narc-kenya, which is headed by Martha Karua, managed to scoop two seats from PNU - Juja (in Central) and Makadara (in Nairobi). Another player who is a threat to Uhuru is Maina Njenga, the former Mungiki leader, who commands a sizeable support among Kikuyu youth and former Mungiki members. This factor helped Wanjiru in retaining the Starehe Seat. So, Uhuru is cornered in Central and Nairobi.

Western province - this is predominantly occupied by the Luhya. There is a high likelihood that they will field their own presidential candidate. Musalia Mudavadi and Eugene Wanjala are thought to be eyeing the seat. The Luhya will also likely remember how Kalonzo side-lined his 2007 running mate, Julia Ojiambo, after ascending to the Veepship, leaving her out in the cold. They are likely to reward him in kind. Again Kalonzo/Uhuru will be a hard sale.

Rift Valley - William Ruto has captured the imagination of the region dominated by the Kalenjin. He led them in voting, almost to a man, against the new constitution during the referendum. He has the ability of swaying which way they will vote. If he goes for the presidency, then they will overwhelmingly vote for him as a block. The only way Kalonzo/Uhuru can get a piece of the pie is incorporating Ruto in their plans - hence the so-called KKK Alliance (Kamba-Kikuyu-Kalenjin). But given that the new constitution does not provide for pre-election MOUs regarding top government posts, Kalonzo/Uhuru is a non-starter here. Ruto is unlikely to accept any number 3 post or playing king-maker.

Luo Nyanza - Not much to write about. This will be no-go zone, owing to near fanatical following that Raila enjoys.

Kisii Nyanza - 50:50. Here, Simeon Nyachae used to determine the politics of the region, but after retirement from active politics his grip has somewhat lessened. There is no Kisii leader at the moment capable of exercising the same level of influence that Nyachae had. Raila enjoys some support, but Kalonzo/Uhuru team might benefit from a some anti-Raila voters.

Coast - this will be a rich hunting ground for support owing to the fact that Raila's ODM is not as influential after Coast ODM leader Najib Balala fell out with Raila. However, the predominant muslim population tends to vote for Raila, therefore a lot of man-hours are needed to capture any support. Again, 50:50.

North-eastern - due to the low number of voters in this region, politicians often venture here in the last minute to spruce up their numbers. However, with the number of counties won playing a role in determining the presidential winner of the next elections, a beehive of political activity is expected as never seen before. However, Kalonzo/Uhuru will have an uphill task as the region is predominantly muslim and tends to sway the Raila way.

So, which way Kalonzo/Uhuru bus?. If they can somehow pull this one off, it will be one of the biggest upsets recorded in Africa's democratic elections.

By-eletions: Raila and Kalonzo Reduced To Tribal Chiefs

My friends, Kenya's political landscape is about to change in a big way, if the just concluded by-elections in Makadara, Starehe and Juja constituencies are anything to go by. The parliamentary by-elections have provided food for thought for major political players in the country. I for one was surprised by the outcome. That one Mike Sonko, beyond all expectations, floored the political giants of Makadara was to say the least an unexpected outcome.

You can access the full results here.

As it were, it is very difficult to recognise the efforts of some of the big political boys (and girls) in the just concluded by-elections. But first, the results. In Makandara, Narc-Kenya carried the day through Mike Mbuvi 'Sonko' who beat Reuben 'ukiona wao' Ndolo of ODM and Dick 'kanjora' Wathika of PNU. In Starehe, Margaret Wanjiru of ODM recaptured the seat after beating Maina Kamanda of PNU. On the other hand, in Juja constituency, the winner was William Kabogo who recaptured the seat after beating the immediate former MP George Thuo. But here the surprise was that there was another player in the name of Alice Ng'ang'a who came in second.

The expectation was that either Ndolo or Wathika would carry the day in Makadara. What with their campaigns backed by some of Kenya's political heavyweights. The whole ODM brigade, let by Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, and Deputy Prime Minister, Musalia Mudavadi, literally camped in Makadara to drum up support for Ndolo. PNU's Dick Wathika's campaign was supported by none other than the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. It is widely believed that Odinga, Mudavadi, Kenyatta and Musyoka will run for presidency in the 2012 elections.

The same level of support was witnessed in Starehe, where the ODM brigade supported Wanjiru while PNU pitched for Kamanda. In Juja, ODM was a no show as they did not have any candidate. PNU, led by Kalonzo and Uhuru, went full throttle in support of George Thuo.

But it is the performance of Narc-Kenya candidates that is likely to sent shivers in the political landscape. The party's candidates won in both Makadara and Juja constituencies. It is worthwhile to note that both 'Sonko' and Kabogo are youthful and have beat some of the seasoned politicians in the country.

As the political heavyweights lick their fresh wounds and have a sleepless night, they will be pondering about what exactly went wrong with their game-plans. They will also be considering how to handle the new generation of voters who are not ready to be told which way to vote and can make their own independent choices. Also, the most disturbing feature of the by-elections was that attracting big crowds does not necessarily translate into votes. People are willing to listen to what you have to offer, but do not dictate what they should do, seems to the (unfamiliar) message.

Take the example of Makadara. The ODM party leaders refused to listen to voices of reason and gave Ndolo a direct nomination. This resulted in 'Sonko', who was a member of ODM, defecting to Narc-Kenya. Obviously he took with him a chunk of ODM supporters. PNU made the same mistake in nominating Dick Wathika. The lesson to be learned here is that voters are increasingly aware of the power of ballot and will definitely punish you if you fail to listen to them. It is worth noting that ODM has not learned from the same mistakes it made in South Mugirago and Matuga by-elections.

The other lesson to be learned is that elected leaders have to be close to the needs of their constituents. In Starehe, there were all indications that Maina Kamanda will recapture the seat. But what people are forgetting is that Wanjiru has been around whenever her constituents were threatened by government policy such as defending the displaced mechanics and opposing rehabilitation of the Nairobi river as this directly impacted her voters. On the other hand, it has been reported that both 'Sonko' and Kabogo actively participated in development projects even when they were not in parliament. Through interaction with the people in the grassroots, the people are able to identify them as part of them and 'own' them.

But it is the political realignments that are likely to take place that are of interest. Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua is likely to attract more attention now as she has managed to beat her rivals especially in Central Kenya hands down. The political rivalry was more manifest in Juja where three potential presidential hopefuls came face-to-face. Uhuru Kenyatta was behind George Thuo's campaign while Martha Karua supported William Kabogo. Peter Kenneth, the MP for Gatanga and who is widely expected to contest the presidency, was behind the campaign for Alice Ng'ang'a. The two gentlemen must now be smarting from the political wounds inflicted by Martha Karua. It is apparent that their message did not resonate with the voters, hence putting in doubt their ability to mount national campaigns. The main concern here is that if they cannot convince people in Central Kenya, can they sell their ideas elsewhere?

The same argument can be extended to PM Raila Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka. But their headache is more complex than that of those above. For one, these are the leading lights of Kenyan politics at the moment. The VP, is the second in command and just a breath away from the presidency. The PM is the coalition partner of the president and 'shares' power with the president. In terms of political influence and the dash for the presidency in 2012, the two have a clear head-start ahead of the rest.

What is worrying is that non of the two was able to deliver any of the three by-elections. I hear you say Raila delivered Starehe. Not quite. Actually, Margaret Wanjiru delivered Starehe on her own, based on her campaign strategy and the reasons i have indicated above. In a separate article, i have enumerated how she camped outside the PM's office to convince him to join her. His decision to go to Starehe was a last minute and reluctant one, owing to differences between the two emanating from the new constitution referendum campaigns. Actually, ODM's campaigns were mostly visible in Makadara. On the other hand, the VP actively campaigned for Dick Wathika in Makadara, Maina Kamanda in Starehe and George Thuo in Juja.

Now, these two gentlemen enjoy above average support in their rural areas where they descend from. To be exact, Raila enjoys a near fanatical following in Luo Nyanza, while Kalonzo, at least based on 2007 election results, commands a size-able following in Ukambani. The thing here is that these are fairly homogeneous regions occupied predominantly by one tribe, in this case the Luo and the Kamba, respectively. On the other hand, the constituencies where the by-elections were held are urban (Nairobi, Thika) and cosmopolitan.

This is what will be causing these two gentlemen sleepless nights. The flip side is that this is what will make them burn the mid-night oil. That is, the fact that their message is no-longer resonating with the urban voters and their success is tied to their rural enclaves.....effectively reducing them to mere TRIBAL LEADERS.

A very uncomfortable position in deed.

Is It Time-Up for Kalonzo Musyoka?

Many are of the opinion that the writing is on the wall for Vice President, one Kalonzo Musyoka, unless he has the gifts of the proverbial cat with nine lives.

Of late, he has found himself in unfamiliar territory. Gone are the days when he was the only cock that crowed in Ukambani. To say the truth, since the just concluded referendum on the new constitution, his share price, as it were, has plummeted to very low levels. But he only has himself to blame for the new turn of events.

The referendum can be termed as a litmus test on his leadership credentials and the turning point of his political career. That he tried to play the 2007 miracles politics of kupita kati kati was not lost on most observers. But what came out clearly is his indecisiveness. Come 2012, the punishment he will likely experience will be as a result of his kati kati stance on the new constitution.

The point is that the VP should have come out early enough with a firm stand to either support or reject the new constitution. His (deliberately) delayed decision to back the YES side came too late as the NO side had already made in-roads supported by the predominant catholic church. To say the least his apparent lack of stand left the Ukambani region very confused, hence the 50:50 referendum results in the region.

The referendum results will hurt both him and the Ukambani region at large. Obviously, the clout that Ukambani held in Kenyan politics has somewhat been diluted. In the next few elections, Kenyan politics will still remain tribal. Hence it is the members of your tribe that you can bring on the power negotiations table that will matter. As for 2012, Kalonzo will have nothing to offer to either Raila, Uhuru or Ruto. It is clear that none of them will be willing to offer Kalonzo a running-mate position if they decide to run for presidency.

Obviously, Kalonzo, being the proud man he is, does not see himself other than as a presidential candidate in the 2012 equation. The problem will be whether he will be in a position to convince any of the other tribal kings to be his running mate. It is not lost on many how he eventually treated his running mate, Julia Ojiambo, after the 2007 elections. But who will be willing to be his running mate this time around?

The other tricky part is which other seat, apart from the presidency, that he is likely to run for. Again, here the options are limited to non-existent. Will he run as an MP? He was recently quoted as having said in Kyuso that the new constitution does not bar him from running for both President and MP. I am not sure about the interpretation of the necessary clause in the new constitution, but what is important is the interpretation of what he is saying. Again, this is kati kati miracles politics and he reasons that if he is not elected president, he will remain an MP.

However, it is worth noting that an MP in the new constitution will not be the same as an MP in the old constitution. To begin with, an MP will not be eligible for appointment in the cabinet. The role of an MP will be merely legislation. No more plum ministerial appointments. The question is, will Kalonzo Musyoka, having risen to the position of Vice President of the republic of Kenya, be comfortable with the position of a mere MP? The same reasoning applies if he chose to run as Senator or Governor of Kitui County. The feeling is that he will definitely run for president. Therefore these two latter positions will not be 'available' to him.

The other issue is the power dynamics presented by the new constitution. The power levers at the grassroots level will be held by the County Governor. The Governor will be the one charged with the responsibility of implementing devolved government projects. This will ultimately include the CDF and LATF funds. MPs will no longer be in a position to dictate how these funds are utilised in their constituencies as their role will be just making legislation in Nairobi. Compared to the Governor, the MP's power to influence matters at the grassroots will be greatly diminished. If Kalonzo decides to be a mere MP, will be agree to play second fiddle to the county governor?

It is also worth noting that he is not guaranteed the MP position as many may think. His poor leadership is reflected in the poor state of Mwingi North constituency that has remained underdeveloped despite having represented it for close to 30 years. There is general apathy in the constituency and if he chooses to run as an MP, he is likely to face stiff competition from more competent individuals.

What we are trying to say is that the kind of politics that Kalonzo has played in the past has been clearly overtaken by events. It is clear that other than going for the presidency, he is unlikely to fit in any other position. Whether he actually gets the top seat is altogether another matter. We wish him all the best. But his room for maneuver is very limited.

Has Raila Gifted Kibaki With By-election Seats?

The last minute dash by Prime Minister Raila Odinga to push for the election of the ODM candidates in Nairobi, that is, Makadara's Reuben Ndolo and Starehe's Margaret Wanjiru was received with alot of anticipation, but might in the end not contribute the much needed decisive votes. That the PM chose to campaign in the two by-elections at the last minute is quite telling. It has even been reported elsewhere that Starehe ODM Candidate Margaret Wanjiru had to camp for hours outside the PM's office to try and convince him to give her the long overdue push.

It will be remembered that the relation between Wanjiru and the PM has not been close of late, owing to the fact that the bishop campaigned against the new constitution which went against the ODM stand. She joined Raila's arch rival in ODM, cabinet minister William Ruto to campaign on the 'No' side. Due to this her relationship with the other ODM MPs has been frosty.

But what is interesting is the way ODM went about nominating candidates for the two by-elections. The party opted for direct nominations rather than go the primaries route to select the candidates. As expected, this mode of nomination has resulted in divisions amongst the party's supporters in the two constituencies. This was contrary to what the party did during the by-election in South Mugirago when it went for primaries to select it's candidate. However, it is widely believed that the main aim of going this route was to eliminate Omingo Magara, the immediate former MP who had lost an election petition. Mr. Magara had already fallen out with the big-wings in ODM and had actually defected to a little known political party and was perceived to have joined the Ruto camp. The primaries were being held to 'punish' him.

Obviously, the PM must have known that direct nominations would generate tension within ODM as many would-be aspirants felt side-lined. He would also have known that the slighted potential aspirants and their followers are likely to shift their support to PNU parties (either PNU or Narc-K). He would also have known that, unlike the ODM support he enjoys in Luo Nyanza, where any ODM candidate would be elected without much sweat, the Nairobi constituencies are fairly cosmopolitan and the voters are well informed. The vote is likely to go either way.

With all this knowledge, why did he leave it to the last minute to 'show' his support? I may be wrong about this but the newly found friendship with President Mwai Kibaki might have everything to do with it. If PNU carries the day in the two by-elections, it could be seen as a 'gift' to the president to cement their relationship, obviously with an eye to the 2012 politics. Will this gift be sufficient for Kibaki to anoint Raila his successor? You never know.

What we know is that Raila would not be surprised if PNU wins. The Makadara seat was held by PNU's Dick Wathika, who was also an assistant minister. His ODM challenger, Reuben Ndolo, is a controversial figure and may not garner enough votes to win the seat. But there is an outside chance that the PNU vote might be split between the PNU candidate and the Nark-Kenya candidate, Gideon Mbuvi, a.k.a. Mike Sonko, gifting Ndolo with the seat. However, what happened in South Mugirago, where both ODM and PNU lost, is also likely to be repeated in Makadara as the youthful Mike Sonko is more appealing to the youth.

Over to Starehe, obviously the relationship between Wanjiru and the ODM brigade has not thawed yet. That she campaigned against the new constitution while her constituents voted overwhelmingly to support it is likely to have a major impact on her chances of survival. This is what surprised many when she was given direct nomination by ODM. ODM's explanation that she never left the party despite going against it on the constitution is not convincing. I think they know that she is going to lose. That the PM had to be literary dragged into the campaign is quite telling.

PS. Who are the kuku na vivaranga and mwewe that Raila was referring to yesterday as he campained for the ODM candidate?