One advantage of having your ear on the ground is that you get to encounter very explosive information during normal conversations with friends and relatives. Like this piece of information that i came across over the past weekend when i was in Kalonzo land.
Apparently, all the talk about Kalonzo being against the post-election violence (PEV) investigations being carried out by the ICC is all hot air. It is reported that recently Kalonzo alleged that the ICC investigations headed by chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo was biased against the PNU. More specifically, since he spoke this when re-launching his party, ODM-K in Nyeri, it has been taken to mean that ICC is targeting the Kikuyu, thus appearing to be in solidarity with Central Kenya MPs who have voiced similar concerns.
The truth of the matter is that being a seasoned politician he had to seize the opportunity, and be seen to be reading from the same script as the central MPs.
But the truth is further from the rhetoric.
What transpired from the conversations i had with people who are privy to the going-ons in his camp was a very different picture. I gathered that the Kalonzo's camp is very anxious and closely monitoring the investigations. They are of the opinion that the investigations should be finalised like yesterday so that the culprits can be taken to the Hague.
The expected culprits are no ordinary people, especially with an eye to 2012 presidential elections. It is widely believed that some of the targets of the investigations could include Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, both of whom are likely to complicate Kalonzo's bid for the presidency in 2012. It is widely believed that even if he were to negotiate an arrangement with either of the two, he is unlikely to accept a running mate position. Anybody willing to have an arrangement with him must accept the running mate position since he feels it is his time to be president. However, it is not a given that either of the two will be willing to play second fiddle to him. Hence the complication.
His only hope is therefore that if the two can be removed from the equation, thanks to the ICC, it would be an easy sail to State House, obviously at the expense of the Prime Minister, Raila Odinga. He feels that in a two-horse contest, he can beat Raila to the finish line hands down.
To any politician, and not just the man from Tseikuru, such a prospect as is being presented by ICC can be quite salivating. For him, the plan is that if Uhuru and Ruto are taken to the Hague, the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin would be very mad with Raila for pushing for the ICC process. The Kalenjin would especially be very mad as they played a key role in ensuring Raila got the PM position. If Uhuru is taken out, it will be enough prove that the Kikuyu have been targeted by ICC for political reasons, to eliminate competition in the run up for the top seat.
If this play goes according to script, Kalonzo will then present himself to both communities as the only one left who can take care of their interests. His message would be he would be capable of getting their leaders back to the country and away from the ICC claws. According to Kalonzo's calculations, if the 2012 elections happen in the process, the communities will have no alternative than to support him. He will be counting on the protest vote from the fallout between these two communities and Raila. Now, with Eastern, Central and Rift Valley in his pocket, the guy will literary whistle all the way to the house on the hill.
It is worth noting the controversy created by utterances attributed to Kalonzo's side-kick and ODM-K Secretary General, Multula Kilonzo, to the effect that ICC might no longer be welcome in Kenya to handle PEV cases and that the cases should be left to local courts now that we have a new constitution. With Kilonzo being the Justice Minister, his statements carry a lot of weight. The strategy is to rattle the hornet's nest, with the expectation that ICC would take this as a challenge to their authority and therefore intensify the campaign to have those implicated in PEV answer for their alleged crimes as soon as possible.
The plan seems to be working so far, as the issue has come back to the public limelight and hit the headlines once again and everybody seems to be talking about nothing else.
And Kalonzo and team wait in the sidelines to pounce on the prize at the earliest opportunity!
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