Kalonzo and Ruto.....what are they upto?
The other day, just after the referendum, I ventured into a little known district that has been curved out of Makueni whose name is Nzaui. I must confess that with so many districts having been created of late, this was the first time came across of this district. But, compared to the larger Makueni county, what I noticed in Nzaui was the extreme weather conditions - dry, hot, sandy conditions. I was a bit surprised because i have always imagined this region to be better climate-wise than Mwingi North, where i hail from.
While in Nzaui, I was able to interact with some wazees. Obviously, as we took our kaluvu (Kamba traditional beer made from honey) our conversation inevitably veered into politics . They were glad to learn that i come from Kalonzo's constituency . But what surprised me also was the near fanatical following that Kalonzo Musyoka enjoys in this region. To quote one mzee, Kalonzo is just a breath away from the presidency and what we the Kambas should do is just a small 'push' and we have our man at the top. My attempts to inform them that Kalonzo has failed to deliver in his constituency and therefore cannot deliver for the country fell on deaf ears.
Back to my post. Several sources close to Kalonzo have provided information that explains why Ukambani was undecided on whether to vote for or against the new constitution. One source has it that strategising on how to vote for the new constitution started way before the Naivasha Parliamentary Select Committee meetings on the constitution retreat. There were plans to 'outsmart' the Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, by key politicians with their eyes trained on the 2012 elections. The key players here were the Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and then Agriculture Minister William Ruto.
The plan was to lobby fellow MPs to adopt a purely presidential system of governance with the head of state and government being the President. It was believed that the ODM wing of the PSC would try hard to lobby for a pure parliamentary system with the head of government being a prime minister and the president being a ceremonial head of state. Eventually, the pure presidential system carried the day, with support from Ruto (ODM), Kalonzo and Uhuru.
Just after the Naivasha talks were concluded, the trio could be seen in public in a celebratory mood. There reasoning was simple. That Raila would never accept a pure presidential system. They reasoned that the PM would obviously go against the draft and would lobby against its passing in Parliament. They based their reasoning on the basis that previous projections have shown Raila as unable to ganner the necessary majority as a presidential candidate. He would therefore prefer the route where he acquires power as PM without going through a popular vote.
It is worth noting that even though politicians would deny this, they knew the results of the referendum would give a head start to whoever lead the winning team. Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto had a feeling that they had finally fixed Raila as the country was for a new constitution and a majority of MPs supported the Naivasha draft. They would simply lead the Yes team and win easily while Raila was expected to lead the No team, to a humiliating defeat. Raila would be finished as far as 2012 was concerned. The Kamba-Kikuyu-Kalenjin (KKK) Alliance would clearly receive a much needed shot in the arm to make it real.
Then came the unexpected turn of events. When Raila came out to fully support the draft and vowed to lead the campaign in its favour, the KKK alliance was thrown into a spin. It was apparent that Raila would eventually get all the credits if the draft was passed, and the trio would be left to play Raila's flower girls. Something had to be done.
During the panic, it is believed that they made some decisions that they will live to regret. The just concluded by-elections in Makadara, Starehe and Juja are an indicator of what lies ahead for them. But at least Ruto came out clearly to oppose the draft and was the leader of the No campaign. It was tricky for Kalonzo and Uhuru. Being in PNU, and therefore beholden to president Kibaki, they could not be seen as opposing the draft. On the other hand, they have strong support among the christian fraternity and therefore could not be seen to be supporting the draft. This explains their lukewarm support of the draft.
But it is the instructions that Kalonzo passed on to the grassroots in Ukambani that proved more confusing. In public, Kalonzo appeared to support the draft. In the grassroots, he had assembled key political leaders, mainly civic leaders (councilors) and clearly instructed them to campaign against the draft. My own councilor was at the forefront campaigning against the draft to the last minute. In Kalonzo's weird calculation, since the church opposed the draft, and Kenya being a predominantly christian country, he calculated that eventually the church would prevail and he would 'defect' at the last minute to lead the No team to a win. It is worth noting that his ODM-Kenya deputy, Information and Communication minister Samuel Poghisio, was with Ruto in the No campaign. Also, the No camp campaigned in Ukambani more than they did in any other region. Again, Kalonzo never came out to deny allegations by Ruto that he was 'with us' and it was just a matter of time for him to defect.
By the time the president came out to lead the Yes campaign, it was too late for Ukambani as Kalonzo had 'allowed' the No team to make inroads let by Ruto, Kiema Kilonzo and the predominant catholic church. Opinion polls at the time were also projecting a huge win for the Yes campaign. Kalonzo, and to some extent Uhuru, had no option than to 'follow' Kibaki and Raila in drumming up support for the draft constitution. The Yes-No result in Ukambani was therefore a reflection of how Kalonzo handled the region's, and a clear reflection about his style of leadership. Even if he denies it, he was responsible for the poor result that Yes got in Ukambani.
You can look at Kalonzo's thought process here to understand the man.
P.S. Just a few days to the referendum, I organized a meeting in my village to educate about the new constitution. Before the meeting, it was apparent that most of the participants, being normal religious villagers, had already decided to vote against the document because they had been told in church that it was 'ungodly'. I had to change my strategy to focus on the benefits provided for in the new constitution, especially the in the bill of rights and governance clauses. It paid off. My audience was around 120 people. After the polling, when the votes were counted, those who voted for were 117, while those who voted against were 109. I only wish I could reach all 250 registered voters in time!
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