Has Raila Gifted Kibaki With By-election Seats?

The last minute dash by Prime Minister Raila Odinga to push for the election of the ODM candidates in Nairobi, that is, Makadara's Reuben Ndolo and Starehe's Margaret Wanjiru was received with alot of anticipation, but might in the end not contribute the much needed decisive votes. That the PM chose to campaign in the two by-elections at the last minute is quite telling. It has even been reported elsewhere that Starehe ODM Candidate Margaret Wanjiru had to camp for hours outside the PM's office to try and convince him to give her the long overdue push.

It will be remembered that the relation between Wanjiru and the PM has not been close of late, owing to the fact that the bishop campaigned against the new constitution which went against the ODM stand. She joined Raila's arch rival in ODM, cabinet minister William Ruto to campaign on the 'No' side. Due to this her relationship with the other ODM MPs has been frosty.

But what is interesting is the way ODM went about nominating candidates for the two by-elections. The party opted for direct nominations rather than go the primaries route to select the candidates. As expected, this mode of nomination has resulted in divisions amongst the party's supporters in the two constituencies. This was contrary to what the party did during the by-election in South Mugirago when it went for primaries to select it's candidate. However, it is widely believed that the main aim of going this route was to eliminate Omingo Magara, the immediate former MP who had lost an election petition. Mr. Magara had already fallen out with the big-wings in ODM and had actually defected to a little known political party and was perceived to have joined the Ruto camp. The primaries were being held to 'punish' him.

Obviously, the PM must have known that direct nominations would generate tension within ODM as many would-be aspirants felt side-lined. He would also have known that the slighted potential aspirants and their followers are likely to shift their support to PNU parties (either PNU or Narc-K). He would also have known that, unlike the ODM support he enjoys in Luo Nyanza, where any ODM candidate would be elected without much sweat, the Nairobi constituencies are fairly cosmopolitan and the voters are well informed. The vote is likely to go either way.

With all this knowledge, why did he leave it to the last minute to 'show' his support? I may be wrong about this but the newly found friendship with President Mwai Kibaki might have everything to do with it. If PNU carries the day in the two by-elections, it could be seen as a 'gift' to the president to cement their relationship, obviously with an eye to the 2012 politics. Will this gift be sufficient for Kibaki to anoint Raila his successor? You never know.

What we know is that Raila would not be surprised if PNU wins. The Makadara seat was held by PNU's Dick Wathika, who was also an assistant minister. His ODM challenger, Reuben Ndolo, is a controversial figure and may not garner enough votes to win the seat. But there is an outside chance that the PNU vote might be split between the PNU candidate and the Nark-Kenya candidate, Gideon Mbuvi, a.k.a. Mike Sonko, gifting Ndolo with the seat. However, what happened in South Mugirago, where both ODM and PNU lost, is also likely to be repeated in Makadara as the youthful Mike Sonko is more appealing to the youth.

Over to Starehe, obviously the relationship between Wanjiru and the ODM brigade has not thawed yet. That she campaigned against the new constitution while her constituents voted overwhelmingly to support it is likely to have a major impact on her chances of survival. This is what surprised many when she was given direct nomination by ODM. ODM's explanation that she never left the party despite going against it on the constitution is not convincing. I think they know that she is going to lose. That the PM had to be literary dragged into the campaign is quite telling.

PS. Who are the kuku na vivaranga and mwewe that Raila was referring to yesterday as he campained for the ODM candidate?