By-eletions: Raila and Kalonzo Reduced To Tribal Chiefs

My friends, Kenya's political landscape is about to change in a big way, if the just concluded by-elections in Makadara, Starehe and Juja constituencies are anything to go by. The parliamentary by-elections have provided food for thought for major political players in the country. I for one was surprised by the outcome. That one Mike Sonko, beyond all expectations, floored the political giants of Makadara was to say the least an unexpected outcome.

You can access the full results here.

As it were, it is very difficult to recognise the efforts of some of the big political boys (and girls) in the just concluded by-elections. But first, the results. In Makandara, Narc-Kenya carried the day through Mike Mbuvi 'Sonko' who beat Reuben 'ukiona wao' Ndolo of ODM and Dick 'kanjora' Wathika of PNU. In Starehe, Margaret Wanjiru of ODM recaptured the seat after beating Maina Kamanda of PNU. On the other hand, in Juja constituency, the winner was William Kabogo who recaptured the seat after beating the immediate former MP George Thuo. But here the surprise was that there was another player in the name of Alice Ng'ang'a who came in second.

The expectation was that either Ndolo or Wathika would carry the day in Makadara. What with their campaigns backed by some of Kenya's political heavyweights. The whole ODM brigade, let by Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, and Deputy Prime Minister, Musalia Mudavadi, literally camped in Makadara to drum up support for Ndolo. PNU's Dick Wathika's campaign was supported by none other than the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. It is widely believed that Odinga, Mudavadi, Kenyatta and Musyoka will run for presidency in the 2012 elections.

The same level of support was witnessed in Starehe, where the ODM brigade supported Wanjiru while PNU pitched for Kamanda. In Juja, ODM was a no show as they did not have any candidate. PNU, led by Kalonzo and Uhuru, went full throttle in support of George Thuo.

But it is the performance of Narc-Kenya candidates that is likely to sent shivers in the political landscape. The party's candidates won in both Makadara and Juja constituencies. It is worthwhile to note that both 'Sonko' and Kabogo are youthful and have beat some of the seasoned politicians in the country.

As the political heavyweights lick their fresh wounds and have a sleepless night, they will be pondering about what exactly went wrong with their game-plans. They will also be considering how to handle the new generation of voters who are not ready to be told which way to vote and can make their own independent choices. Also, the most disturbing feature of the by-elections was that attracting big crowds does not necessarily translate into votes. People are willing to listen to what you have to offer, but do not dictate what they should do, seems to the (unfamiliar) message.

Take the example of Makadara. The ODM party leaders refused to listen to voices of reason and gave Ndolo a direct nomination. This resulted in 'Sonko', who was a member of ODM, defecting to Narc-Kenya. Obviously he took with him a chunk of ODM supporters. PNU made the same mistake in nominating Dick Wathika. The lesson to be learned here is that voters are increasingly aware of the power of ballot and will definitely punish you if you fail to listen to them. It is worth noting that ODM has not learned from the same mistakes it made in South Mugirago and Matuga by-elections.

The other lesson to be learned is that elected leaders have to be close to the needs of their constituents. In Starehe, there were all indications that Maina Kamanda will recapture the seat. But what people are forgetting is that Wanjiru has been around whenever her constituents were threatened by government policy such as defending the displaced mechanics and opposing rehabilitation of the Nairobi river as this directly impacted her voters. On the other hand, it has been reported that both 'Sonko' and Kabogo actively participated in development projects even when they were not in parliament. Through interaction with the people in the grassroots, the people are able to identify them as part of them and 'own' them.

But it is the political realignments that are likely to take place that are of interest. Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua is likely to attract more attention now as she has managed to beat her rivals especially in Central Kenya hands down. The political rivalry was more manifest in Juja where three potential presidential hopefuls came face-to-face. Uhuru Kenyatta was behind George Thuo's campaign while Martha Karua supported William Kabogo. Peter Kenneth, the MP for Gatanga and who is widely expected to contest the presidency, was behind the campaign for Alice Ng'ang'a. The two gentlemen must now be smarting from the political wounds inflicted by Martha Karua. It is apparent that their message did not resonate with the voters, hence putting in doubt their ability to mount national campaigns. The main concern here is that if they cannot convince people in Central Kenya, can they sell their ideas elsewhere?

The same argument can be extended to PM Raila Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka. But their headache is more complex than that of those above. For one, these are the leading lights of Kenyan politics at the moment. The VP, is the second in command and just a breath away from the presidency. The PM is the coalition partner of the president and 'shares' power with the president. In terms of political influence and the dash for the presidency in 2012, the two have a clear head-start ahead of the rest.

What is worrying is that non of the two was able to deliver any of the three by-elections. I hear you say Raila delivered Starehe. Not quite. Actually, Margaret Wanjiru delivered Starehe on her own, based on her campaign strategy and the reasons i have indicated above. In a separate article, i have enumerated how she camped outside the PM's office to convince him to join her. His decision to go to Starehe was a last minute and reluctant one, owing to differences between the two emanating from the new constitution referendum campaigns. Actually, ODM's campaigns were mostly visible in Makadara. On the other hand, the VP actively campaigned for Dick Wathika in Makadara, Maina Kamanda in Starehe and George Thuo in Juja.

Now, these two gentlemen enjoy above average support in their rural areas where they descend from. To be exact, Raila enjoys a near fanatical following in Luo Nyanza, while Kalonzo, at least based on 2007 election results, commands a size-able following in Ukambani. The thing here is that these are fairly homogeneous regions occupied predominantly by one tribe, in this case the Luo and the Kamba, respectively. On the other hand, the constituencies where the by-elections were held are urban (Nairobi, Thika) and cosmopolitan.

This is what will be causing these two gentlemen sleepless nights. The flip side is that this is what will make them burn the mid-night oil. That is, the fact that their message is no-longer resonating with the urban voters and their success is tied to their rural enclaves.....effectively reducing them to mere TRIBAL LEADERS.

A very uncomfortable position in deed.